Raydium Price Prediction: RAY Buybacks After StonkFun

• RAY trades near $2.21, about 10.6x September’s annualized buyback spend and 32.5x the trailing twelve months.
• September buybacks of $4.69 million were the highest monthly total since August 2025 and followed StonkFun’s move to LaunchLab.
• The buyback wallet holds about 82.9 million RAY, close to 31% of circulating supply, with no release schedule.
• Raydium handles about 13% of Solana DEX volume, behind PumpSwap and BisonFi on DefiLlama’s 30-day data.
• Modeled 12-month scenarios run from $0.75 to $1.55 in the bear case, $1.40 to $3.85 in the base case and $3.30 to $6.60 in the bull case.

RAY trades at $2.21 with a $595 million market cap, according to CoinMarketCap on 7 October 2026. A month earlier it changed hands around $1.27. The rally comes with a clean fundamental story, since Raydium routes 12% of its pool fees into RAY buybacks and those buybacks reached $4.69 million in September, the highest monthly total since August 2025. Annualize September and RAY trades at about 10.6x buyback spend. Use the trailing twelve months, $18.3 million of buybacks, and the same price sits at 32.5x.

Any Raydium price prediction for the next year is a forecast of whether that launch volume repeats, and early October data already shows it cooling.

How RAY buybacks work

Every swap fee on Raydium splits three ways. On CPMM and CLMM pools, 84% goes to liquidity providers, 12% to RAY buybacks and 4% to the treasury, per Raydium’s protocol fee schedule. Standard AMM v4 pools send 88% to LPs and the same 12% to buybacks. On a pool charging 0.25%, the buyback works out to 0.03% of notional, the example Raydium’s buyback documentation uses.

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The protocol holds what it buys at a public address, and nothing gets burned. The Block reported cumulative buybacks of $190.4 million covering 69.1 million RAY by July 2025. Blockworks Advisory’s Q2 2026 token holder report puts the cumulative figure at $199.1 million and the wallet at about 82.9 million RAY, with “no release schedule or near-term plans for dilution.”

That wallet counts toward the 269.86 million circulating supply, so close to 31% of the float sits with the protocol. Excluding it, RAY’s free float is worth about $413 million at today’s price, or 22.5x trailing buybacks.

The mining reserve releases about 1.9 million RAY a year, roughly 0.7% of circulating supply, and team and seed vesting ended on 21 February 2024, according to the RAY token documentation. Mint authority is disabled at a 555 million maximum supply.

Raydium’s September 2026 volume and StonkFun

StonkFun, a launchpad for tokens paired against tokenized stocks and ETFs, said on 7 September that new deployments would launch through Raydium’s LaunchLab. RAY rose about 46% in a day to around $1.27, The Block reported.

Pine Analytics’ Q3 2026 Raydium report counts 156,294 LaunchLab launches in September, up from 5,420 in August, with StonkFun behind 149,085 of them. StonkFun tokens produced $2.81 billion of trading, 28% of Raydium’s September volume.

Monthly sums of DefiLlama’s daily holder revenue series for Raydium.

Buybacks slid from $1.93 million in January to $0.41 million in July, and September came in at more than four times August’s figure. October has started slower. Launches averaged 3,789 a day in early October, 39% below September’s post-migration average, and daily fees fell to about $0.86 million from $1.49 million, according to Pine.

Tokenized stock pairs are the steadier part of the mix. Pine counts $4.14 billion of Q3 volume in pairs with a tokenized-stock leg, 25% of the quarter. Blockworks recorded $2.09 billion of tokenized-asset volume in Q2, up 273.8% on Q1. Some of that flow is StonkFun memestocks paired against SPYx, so the line between tokenized stocks and launchpad speculation runs through the same pools.

Raydium market share on Solana

DefiLlama’s Solana DEX dashboard shows $71.4 billion of 30-day DEX volume across the chain. PumpSwap leads at $12.3 billion, BisonFi follows at $9.5 billion and Raydium sits third at $9.3 billion, about 13% of the total. Pine’s wash-adjusted measure puts Raydium at 7.9% of Solana DEX volume for Q3, up from 7.1% in Q2.

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Pump.fun graduates used to migrate into Raydium pools, and since PumpSwap launched on 20 March 2025 they move straight to Pump.fun’s own AMM. Among the four largest Solana AMMs Blockworks tracks, Raydium’s share fell to 16.6% in Q2 while PumpSwap held 37%. On DefiLlama’s latest 30 days, Raydium’s share of the same four-venue group is about 26%.

Its DefiLlama protocol page shows $1.34 billion of TVL, $46.28 million of 30-day fees and $4.78 million of 30-day holder revenue. PumpSwap, Orca and Meteora each hold between $320 million and $400 million of TVL.

RAY price scenarios for the next 12 months

A RAY price outlook comes down to two inputs, the buyback run rate and the multiple the market pays for it. Today’s price implies 32.5x trailing buybacks. The table holds supply at about 272 million RAY, which adds one year of emissions, and applies a multiple band around today’s level.

These are modeled ranges built from the inputs shown, with no probabilities attached.

The bear case is a return to the Q2 pace once StonkFun cools, roughly $8 million a year of buybacks. The base case keeps buybacks between the trailing year and about half of September’s pace. The bull case needs September to become the floor, with launch volume holding and tokenized stock pairs growing into a larger share of Raydium’s fees. The bull multiple sits lower because a market paying 30x on $60 million of buybacks would already value RAY at $1.8 billion.

Raydium has been exploited twice, losing $4.4 million in December 2022 and $1.34 million on 10 June 2026. The second attack hit a legacy AMM V3 program decommissioned in 2021, and Raydium said current users were unaffected and the treasury would compensate losses, ForkLog reported. The 82.9 million RAY wallet could be distributed or sold by a governance decision, which would change the supply math in a day. And RAY’s history is violent, from a $16.93 high on 12 September 2021 to $0.1343 on 29 December 2022.

RAY at $2.21 is priced for a September that repeats, and the first week of October shows a launchpad already slowing down.